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Title :  The stock market in the USA's 'the fear Index' Flashes a Strange warning – CCN.com
Lasting :   2,8
User :  Mamuro
Date of publication :   2019-08-24
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Description The stock market in the USA's 'the fear Index' Flashes a Strange warning – CCN.com

The volatility index of CBOE, commonly known as the VIX, it is assumed that it is one of the most reliable indicators of investor sentiment on Wall Street. The number can vary from 1 to 100, contains important information, such as the S&P 500, the Index of the scene.

Therefore, if the VIX rocked again under the General benign 15 Wednesday, told investors to breathe a sigh of relief as it became clear that the actions were at a record level. But a closer look at the volatility of the indicator now is the time to get complacent, be is not revealed.

VIX Six weeks at Low

The increase in stock prices this month have a downward pressure on the index, the VIX, the historical average of nearly 20 years. Everything below this level is considered to be positive for the shares.

The so-called “the investor fear index” has been reduced to 8.4% this week and down a whopping 44% of the august bill. On Friday 13.74 castle, the lowest level since the end of July.

History Repeat Itself?

Although past performance is no guarantee for the future, the VIX moves in an eerily similar, in December, a decline in the equity markets.

As a reminder, the U.S. capital, has shake all vertices until the end of september 2018, with the S&P-500-earnings on 2,930. Shortly after the markets began its largest correction since the financial crisis.

The sell-off happened in waves, with the S&P 500, a three-bed room superior form, in October and november, before dipping again in the last month of the year. The loss was so strong that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq officially bear the area of the market, which can be described as a reduction of 20% in a secondary local.

If the holdings of the Fund to the eve of Christmas, the VIX’s lock price has reached a level, to a maximum of mid-30's. It’is really interesting is the race for the VIX spike, and the current performance.

The interesting thing about the VIX is, the inverse of the S&P 500 Index of about 75 to 80% of the time. Therefore, when the VIX rises, stocks fall. The reverse is also true.

Of course, there are notable differences between the cycle and the current trend. To start, the S&P 500 today is a rally to a new all-time record. Three times the upper part of the training in October-november, 2018 status led the index to within 4% to a new high.

This said, a u-14 VIX is still very high, as well as the tips on the stock exchange refers to. If the shares are values in the recovery of assets, trade -, anxiety-meter was trading in the single digits.

Reasons for the slump

Although the macro-climate, by the end of 2019 differs from the one we saw in the past year, a large number of the same risks, which are still in the game.

Us-China trade tensions, in the mid-2018 background of the market, continue to currently. There was a lot of speculation about the threat of a stop-gap agreement between the two countries, but without a global agreement, the fees continue to be a dark cloud in the stock market and the business climate.

The world economy is less than it was at the end of 2018. Germany and the United Kingdom, both of which shrank in the second quarter, while the production of the UNITED States of America to the brink of insolvency, total number of the recession. During this time, China’s the pace of industrial production has fallen to the lowest level in almost 17 years.

The big difference between the two time periods, the Central Bank is. The Federal Reserve is without a doubt the biggest catalyst for last year’s to the correction of the market, has capitulated to the interest rate. In this moment, last year, which was Central to increase the Bank of the UNITED States nor the interest. Clearly, this is an aspect that favors the continuation of the equity rally.

If the inventories continue to increase, investors will be keeping an eye on the VIX. The fear that the measurement is not’t trade the device to a record level of previous bull cycles, and their movements are crash eerily to what was observed before last year’s a flash.

Last modified (UTC): 15 september 2019 12:26 AM



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